Macro & Policy Decisions

Federal Reserve decisions, trade policy, tariffs, and geopolitical events that drive prediction market activity.

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Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 19, 2026

How the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs could impact consumer stocks

CNBC reports: Ruling: How the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs could impact consumer stocks How the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs could impact consumer stocks

Supreme Court+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Macro & Policy Decisions Crypto Prediction Markets

Feb 19, 2026

Sen. Warren tells Fed and Treasury: No bailout for crypto billionaires

Ruling: Sen. Warren tells Fed and Treasury: No bailout for crypto billionaires Sen. Warren tells Fed and Treasury: No bailout for crypto billionaires

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 19, 2026

Section 301 won’t save Trump’s tariffs if the Supreme Court strikes them down

The Hill reports: Update: Section 301 won’t save Trump’s tariffs if the Supreme Court strikes them down Section 301 won’t save Trump’s tariffs if the Supreme Court strikes them down

Supreme Court+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Federal Litigation - District Courts Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 19, 2026

Toy firms look to US Supreme Court as tariffs keep them on edge

Filing: Toy firms look to US Supreme Court as tariffs keep them on edge Toy firms look to US Supreme Court as tariffs keep them on edge

Omen+2 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 19, 2026

Why the Fed could deliver one final sting to your portfolio before Powell’s exit in May

MarketWatch reports: Update: Why the Fed could deliver one final sting to your portfolio before Powell’s exit in May Why the Fed could deliver one final sting to your portfolio before Powell’s exit in May

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 19, 2026

The Federal Reserve Could Embrace Prediction Markets - inc.com

Discovery Search reports: Ruling: The Federal Reserve Could Embrace Prediction Markets - inc.com The Federal Reserve Could Embrace Prediction Markets - inc.com

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 19, 2026

Hassett says New York Fed staff should be disciplined over study finding Americans paid for Trump’s tariffs

MarketWatch reports: Ruling: Hassett says New York Fed staff should be disciplined over study finding Americans paid for Trump’s tariffs Hassett says New York Fed staff should be disciplined over study finding Americans paid for Trump’s tariffs

Federal Reserve+2 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 18, 2026

Hassett: Fed researchers should be punished for Trump tariff analysis

The Hill reports: Update: Hassett: Fed researchers should be punished for Trump tariff analysis Hassett: Fed researchers should be punished for Trump tariff analysis

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Election & Political Contracts Institutional & Platform Moves

Feb 18, 2026

Polymarket courts Chinese users despite strict online gambling ban

Discovery Search reports: Ruling: Polymarket courts Chinese users despite strict online gambling ban Polymarket courts Chinese users despite strict online gambling ban

Federal Reserve+2 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 18, 2026

Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump’s tariffs this Friday?

Discovery Search reports: Ruling: Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump’s tariffs this Friday? Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump’s tariffs this Friday?

UMA Protocol+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 17, 2026

Fed’s Barr Says Appropriate to Hold Rates for ‘Some Time’ (1)

Bloomberg Law reports: Update: Fed’s Barr Says Appropriate to Hold Rates for ‘Some Time’ (1) Fed’s Barr Says Appropriate to Hold Rates for ‘Some Time’ (1)

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 17, 2026

3 cheers for the anti-tariff House Republicans

The Hill reports: Update: 3 cheers for the anti-tariff House Republicans 3 cheers for the anti-tariff House Republicans

+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions State Regulator Crackdowns Election & Political Contracts

Feb 15, 2026

In battleground Michigan, 3 Democrats test vision of affordability in the Senate primary

Filing: In battleground Michigan, 3 Democrats test vision of affordability in the Senate primary In battleground Michigan, 3 Democrats test vision of affordability in the Senate primary

Gnosis+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 14, 2026

Trump ramps up Fed rate cut pressure after strong jobs, inflation reports

The Hill reports: Update: Trump ramps up Fed rate cut pressure after strong jobs, inflation reports Trump ramps up Fed rate cut pressure after strong jobs, inflation reports

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 13, 2026

Thank ‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell for the jobs and inflation beats

MarketWatch reports: Update: Thank ‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell for the jobs and inflation beats Thank ‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell for the jobs and inflation beats

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 13, 2026

Bessent expects Senate Republicans to proceed with Fed chief nomination hearing

The Hill reports: Update: Bessent expects Senate Republicans to proceed with Fed chief nomination hearing Bessent expects Senate Republicans to proceed with Fed chief nomination hearing

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Feb 13, 2026

Tillis continues to hold Fed nominees despite latest offer from Treasury

The Hill reports: Update: Tillis continues to hold Fed nominees despite latest offer from Treasury Tillis continues to hold Fed nominees despite latest offer from Treasury

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 13, 2026

US business, consumers bore 90 percent of Trump tariff costs: NY Fed

The Hill reports: Update: US business, consumers bore 90 percent of Trump tariff costs: NY Fed US business, consumers bore 90 percent of Trump tariff costs: NY Fed

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Feb 13, 2026

Bessent Pushes Senate on Fed Confirmation Amid Backlash Over Criminal Inquiry

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Bessent Pushes Senate on Fed Confirmation Amid Backlash Over Criminal Inquiry Bessent Pushes Senate on Fed Confirmation Amid Backlash Over Criminal Inquiry

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations Election & Political Contracts

Feb 13, 2026

Crypto revolt exposes fragility of Trump's coalition

Axios reports: Enforcement: Crypto revolt exposes fragility of Trump's coalition Crypto revolt exposes fragility of Trump's coalition

Federal Reserve+2 sources

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