Macro & Policy Decisions

Federal Reserve decisions, trade policy, tariffs, and geopolitical events that drive prediction market activity.

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Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 23, 2026

Easy No bet of the year. Fed rate hike in 2026 is not happening and here's the proof

Reddit r/Polymarket reports: Update: Easy No bet of the year. Fed rate hike in 2026 is not happening and here's the proof Easy No bet of the year. Fed rate hike in 2026 is not happening and here's the proof

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions State Regulator Crackdowns

Mar 22, 2026

Washington ignores America's fiscal cliff

Axios reports: Ruling: Washington ignores America's fiscal cliff Washington ignores America's fiscal cliff

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 20, 2026

SEC Accountant Stresses Tariff Disclosure Given Refund Ambiguity

Primary document: SEC Accountant Stresses Tariff Disclosure Given Refund Ambiguity SEC Accountant Stresses Tariff Disclosure Given Refund Ambiguity

Chainlink+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 20, 2026

I’m 30 and earn $140,000. How much do I need to invest to have $420,000 in 10 years?

MarketWatch reports: Update: I’m 30 and earn $140,000. How much do I need to invest to have $420,000 in 10 years? I’m 30 and earn $140,000. How much do I need to invest to have $420,000 in 10 years?

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 20, 2026

Treasury yields climb as bonds sell off and fear grows that Fed rate cuts are off the table

Ruling: Treasury yields climb as bonds sell off and fear grows that Fed rate cuts are off the table Treasury yields climb as bonds sell off and fear grows that Fed rate cuts are off the table

Omen+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 20, 2026

Fed Official Urges Caution on Rate Cuts as Iran War Drags On

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Fed Official Urges Caution on Rate Cuts as Iran War Drags On Fed Official Urges Caution on Rate Cuts as Iran War Drags On

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations Institutional & Platform Moves

Mar 20, 2026

Trump administration tasks Treasury Department with student loan collection. What borrowers need to know

Enforcement: Trump administration tasks Treasury Department with student loan collection. What borrowers need to know Trump administration tasks Treasury Department with student loan collection. What borrowers need to know

UMA Protocol+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Election & Political Contracts

Mar 20, 2026

John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award goes to ‘the people of the Twin Cities’ and Jerome Powell

The Hill reports: Update: John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award goes to ‘the people of the Twin Cities’ and Jerome Powell John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award goes to ‘the people of the Twin Cities’ and Jerome Powell

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 19, 2026

DOJ, White House Clear Way for Pirro to Keep Powell Probe Going

Bloomberg Law reports: Ruling: DOJ, White House Clear Way for Pirro to Keep Powell Probe Going DOJ, White House Clear Way for Pirro to Keep Powell Probe Going

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 19, 2026

Warren calls on Federal Reserve nominee to explain Epstein links

The Hill reports: Update: Warren calls on Federal Reserve nominee to explain Epstein links Warren calls on Federal Reserve nominee to explain Epstein links

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 19, 2026

Banking Agencies’ Proposal Highlights the Gross Advantage They Have Given to Large Banks over Community Banks | Better Markets

Primary document: Banking Agencies’ Proposal Highlights the Gross Advantage They Have Given to Large Banks over Community Banks | Better Markets Banking Agencies’ Proposal Highlights the Gross Advantage They Have Given to Large Banks over Community Banks | Better Markets

Federal Reserve+2 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions State Regulator Crackdowns

Mar 19, 2026

Bitcoin price slips after Trump hikes worldwide tariff to 15% from 10% despite Supreme Court decision

Ruling: Bitcoin price slips after Trump hikes worldwide tariff to 15% from 10% despite Supreme Court decision Bitcoin price slips after Trump hikes worldwide tariff to 15% from 10% despite Supreme Court decision

Omen+13 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions State Regulator Crackdowns

Mar 19, 2026

State Street strategist still sees three rate cuts in 2026. The market expects zero.

MarketWatch reports: Update: State Street strategist still sees three rate cuts in 2026. The market expects zero. State Street strategist still sees three rate cuts in 2026. The market expects zero.

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 19, 2026

The Markets Contend with Powell’s Long Goodbye at the Fed

New York Times - Business reports: Update: The Markets Contend with Powell’s Long Goodbye at the Fed The Markets Contend with Powell’s Long Goodbye at the Fed

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 19, 2026

The Best We Should Hope For From the Fed: Nothing

New York Times - Business reports: Update: The Best We Should Hope For From the Fed: Nothing The Best We Should Hope For From the Fed: Nothing

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 18, 2026

Watch: The Gavel with Zach Schonfeld, Ella Lee

The Hill reports: Update: Watch: The Gavel with Zach Schonfeld, Ella Lee Watch: The Gavel with Zach Schonfeld, Ella Lee

Federal Reserve+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Federal Litigation - District Courts State AG & Consumer Protection

Mar 18, 2026

Kalshi co-founder fights back against Arizona’s ‘overstep’ in what a lawyer calls a federal-state turf war

Filing: Kalshi co-founder fights back against Arizona’s ‘overstep’ in what a lawyer calls a federal-state turf war Kalshi co-founder fights back against Arizona’s ‘overstep’ in what a lawyer calls a federal-state turf war

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 18, 2026

Powell delivers his most definitive answer yet on how long he’ll stay on as Fed chair

MarketWatch reports: Update: Powell delivers his most definitive answer yet on how long he’ll stay on as Fed chair Powell delivers his most definitive answer yet on how long he’ll stay on as Fed chair

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Crypto Prediction Markets

Mar 18, 2026

Bitcoin Chases $72K After Fed Decides To Hold Rates: Is BTC Selling Over?

Ruling: Bitcoin Chases $72K After Fed Decides To Hold Rates: Is BTC Selling Over? Bitcoin Chases $72K After Fed Decides To Hold Rates: Is BTC Selling Over?

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 18, 2026

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady as Iran war upends the economic outlook.

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady as Iran war upends the economic outlook. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady as Iran war upends the economic outlook.

Federal Reserve+1 sources

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Macro & Policy Decisions

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