Macro & Policy Decisions

Federal Reserve decisions, trade policy, tariffs, and geopolitical events that drive prediction market activity.

433 stories|Last updated 4h ago

Filter updates

All Updates

20 stories

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 12, 2026

Fed’s Plan Tied to Basel On Track for End of First Quarter (1)

Bloomberg Law reports: Update: Fed’s Plan Tied to Basel On Track for End of First Quarter (1) Fed’s Plan Tied to Basel On Track for End of First Quarter (1)

Federal Reserve+2 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 12, 2026

Banking Regulators Plan to Ease Some Capital Requirements

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Banking Regulators Plan to Ease Some Capital Requirements Banking Regulators Plan to Ease Some Capital Requirements

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Federal Litigation - District Courts Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 12, 2026

Costco sued by shopper in potential tariff class action case

The Hill reports: Filing: Costco sued by shopper in potential tariff class action case Costco sued by shopper in potential tariff class action case

Supreme Court+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Election & Political Contracts Crypto Prediction Markets

Mar 12, 2026

Republicans Could Hold Up Housing Bill Over CBDC Ban

Cointelegraph reports: Update: Republicans Could Hold Up Housing Bill Over CBDC Ban Republicans Could Hold Up Housing Bill Over CBDC Ban

Federal Reserve+2 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions State Regulator Crackdowns

Mar 12, 2026

Trump tariffs: Martin Heinrich bill would give families tax rebate for higher import costs

Filing: Trump tariffs: Martin Heinrich bill would give families tax rebate for higher import costs Trump tariffs: Martin Heinrich bill would give families tax rebate for higher import costs

Omen+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations State Regulator Crackdowns

Mar 12, 2026

China's economic ambitions hit limits to growth as its national congress meets

Ruling: China's economic ambitions hit limits to growth as its national congress meets China's economic ambitions hit limits to growth as its national congress meets

UMA Protocol+2 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Sports Event Contracts Election & Political Contracts

Mar 12, 2026

Prediction Market OpenClaw Practical Guide Part 1: Monitoring, Analysis, and Risk Management | MEXC News

Ruling: Prediction Market OpenClaw Practical Guide Part 1: Monitoring, Analysis, and Risk Management | MEXC News Prediction Market OpenClaw Practical Guide Part 1: Monitoring, Analysis, and Risk Management | MEXC News

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 12, 2026

Trump’s Well-Stocked Tariff Toolkit Demands Importers’ Attention

Ruling: Trump’s Well-Stocked Tariff Toolkit Demands Importers’ Attention Trump’s Well-Stocked Tariff Toolkit Demands Importers’ Attention

Chainlink+28 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 12, 2026

U.S. trading partners cheer Supreme Court tariff ruling — but businesses must still navigate 'murky waters'

CNBC reports: Ruling: U.S. trading partners cheer Supreme Court tariff ruling — but businesses must still navigate 'murky waters' U.S. trading partners cheer Supreme Court tariff ruling — but businesses must still navigate 'murky waters'

Supreme Court+22 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 11, 2026

Bessent says global 15% tariff starts this week, move back to prior rates within 5 months

Ruling: Bessent says global 15% tariff starts this week, move back to prior rates within 5 months Bessent says global 15% tariff starts this week, move back to prior rates within 5 months

Supreme Court+4 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Mar 11, 2026

Prediction Market Contracts Tied to Iran War Sow Confusion—and Frustration

Ruling: Prediction Market Contracts Tied to Iran War Sow Confusion—and Frustration Prediction Market Contracts Tied to Iran War Sow Confusion—and Frustration

Chainlink+6 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 9, 2026

Citadel Securities Sees Markets Mispricing Fed, ECB Rate Paths - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg reports: Update: Citadel Securities Sees Markets Mispricing Fed, ECB Rate Paths - Bloomberg.com Citadel Securities Sees Markets Mispricing Fed, ECB Rate Paths - Bloomberg.com

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 9, 2026

Group that defeated Trump’s tariffs at Supreme Court challenges latest round

Filing: Group that defeated Trump’s tariffs at Supreme Court challenges latest round Group that defeated Trump’s tariffs at Supreme Court challenges latest round

Supreme Court+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Macro & Policy Decisions Institutional & Platform Moves

Mar 9, 2026

How Kalshi, Polymarket bets on mortgage rates are being watched by lenders

Discovery Search reports: Update: How Kalshi, Polymarket bets on mortgage rates are being watched by lenders How Kalshi, Polymarket bets on mortgage rates are being watched by lenders

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations Institutional & Platform Moves

Mar 8, 2026

Kalshi, Polymarket Discuss Fundraising at $20B Valuations: Report

Ruling: Kalshi, Polymarket Discuss Fundraising at $20B Valuations: Report Kalshi, Polymarket Discuss Fundraising at $20B Valuations: Report

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 6, 2026

Alan Greenspan at 100: The ‘quiet God in the machine?’

The Hill reports: Update: Alan Greenspan at 100: The ‘quiet God in the machine?’ Alan Greenspan at 100: The ‘quiet God in the machine?’

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 6, 2026

Weak Jobs Data Underscores Fed’s Dilemma as War Stokes Inflation Risk

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Weak Jobs Data Underscores Fed’s Dilemma as War Stokes Inflation Risk Weak Jobs Data Underscores Fed’s Dilemma as War Stokes Inflation Risk

Federal Reserve+1 sources