Macro & Policy Decisions

Federal Reserve decisions, trade policy, tariffs, and geopolitical events that drive prediction market activity.

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Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Federal Litigation - District Courts State AG & Consumer Protection

Mar 5, 2026

States sue Trump over new 'unlawful' global tariffs

Filing: States sue Trump over new 'unlawful' global tariffs States sue Trump over new 'unlawful' global tariffs

Federal Reserve+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 5, 2026

After Supreme Court rebuke, Democrats call for government to refund billions in Trump tariff money

Ruling: After Supreme Court rebuke, Democrats call for government to refund billions in Trump tariff money After Supreme Court rebuke, Democrats call for government to refund billions in Trump tariff money

Federal Reserve+9 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Federal Litigation - District Courts Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 5, 2026

Judge rules companies are entitled to refunds for Trump tariffs overturned by the Supreme Court

Ruling: Judge rules companies are entitled to refunds for Trump tariffs overturned by the Supreme Court Judge rules companies are entitled to refunds for Trump tariffs overturned by the Supreme Court

Federal Reserve+2 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Macro & Policy Decisions Sports Event Contracts

Mar 5, 2026

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Nomination Official, Settling $807M Prediction Market

Enforcement: Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Nomination Official, Settling $807M Prediction Market Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Nomination Official, Settling $807M Prediction Market

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 4, 2026

Judge orders Trump administration to close out goods without charging emergency tariffs

Ruling: Judge orders Trump administration to close out goods without charging emergency tariffs Judge orders Trump administration to close out goods without charging emergency tariffs

Federal Reserve+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Mar 4, 2026

Trump Sends Pro-Bitcoin Fed Chair Nomination to the Senate

Cointelegraph reports: Update: Trump Sends Pro-Bitcoin Fed Chair Nomination to the Senate Trump Sends Pro-Bitcoin Fed Chair Nomination to the Senate

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 4, 2026

Trump formally nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed chair

The Hill reports: Update: Trump formally nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed chair Trump formally nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed chair

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Institutional & Platform Moves Crypto Prediction Markets

Mar 4, 2026

Kraken Secures Federal Reserve Master Account

Cointelegraph reports: Filing: Kraken Secures Federal Reserve Master Account Kraken Secures Federal Reserve Master Account

Federal Reserve+3 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Sports Event Contracts Institutional & Platform Moves

Mar 4, 2026

Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?

Update: Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 4, 2026

Top Fed Official, Wary of Inflation, Calls for Extended Rate Pause

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Top Fed Official, Wary of Inflation, Calls for Extended Rate Pause Top Fed Official, Wary of Inflation, Calls for Extended Rate Pause

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Sports Event Contracts Election & Political Contracts

Mar 4, 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: March

Update: Nothing Ever Happens: March Nothing Ever Happens: March

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 3, 2026

At a divided Fed, doves likely to rule the roost and push for more rate cuts this year

MarketWatch reports: Update: At a divided Fed, doves likely to rule the roost and push for more rate cuts this year At a divided Fed, doves likely to rule the roost and push for more rate cuts this year

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Institutional & Platform Moves Crypto Prediction Markets

Mar 3, 2026

U.S. Senate housing bill includes CBDC ban

CoinDesk reports: Ruling: U.S. Senate housing bill includes CBDC ban U.S. Senate housing bill includes CBDC ban

Federal Reserve+2 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 1, 2026

Can an A.I. Productivity Boom Clear a Path for More Rate Cuts? Trump’s Fed Pick Thinks So.

Ruling: Can an A.I. Productivity Boom Clear a Path for More Rate Cuts? Trump’s Fed Pick Thinks So. Can an A.I. Productivity Boom Clear a Path for More Rate Cuts? Trump’s Fed Pick Thinks So.

Omen+2 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 1, 2026

Trump tariff refund fight in motion as small businesses take helm

The Hill reports: Ruling: Trump tariff refund fight in motion as small businesses take helm Trump tariff refund fight in motion as small businesses take helm

Supreme Court+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 28, 2026

Trump Signals Opposition to Tariff Refunds, Hinting at Legal War to Come

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Trump Signals Opposition to Tariff Refunds, Hinting at Legal War to Come Trump Signals Opposition to Tariff Refunds, Hinting at Legal War to Come

Supreme Court+1 sources