Macro & Policy Decisions

Federal Reserve decisions, trade policy, tariffs, and geopolitical events that drive prediction market activity.

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Macro & Policy Decisions Institutional & Platform Moves

Apr 24, 2026

How a swap line for Persian Gulf allies would break with the past

Axios reports: Update: How a swap line for Persian Gulf allies would break with the past How a swap line for Persian Gulf allies would break with the past

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Apr 24, 2026

US prosecutors drop criminal probe into Fed chair Powell

Financial Times reports: Ruling: US prosecutors drop criminal probe into Fed chair Powell US prosecutors drop criminal probe into Fed chair Powell

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 24, 2026

Kevin Warsh gave his preferred way for measuring inflation. It could come back to bite him

Ruling: Kevin Warsh gave his preferred way for measuring inflation. It could come back to bite him Kevin Warsh gave his preferred way for measuring inflation. It could come back to bite him

Omen+2 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations Institutional & Platform Moves

Apr 24, 2026

Trump's DOJ drops probe that stood in way of president's pick to run Federal Reserve

Ruling: Trump's DOJ drops probe that stood in way of president's pick to run Federal Reserve Trump's DOJ drops probe that stood in way of president's pick to run Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Apr 24, 2026

Live updates: Pirro drops Federal Reserve probe, making path for Warsh confirmation

The Hill reports: Update: Live updates: Pirro drops Federal Reserve probe, making path for Warsh confirmation Live updates: Pirro drops Federal Reserve probe, making path for Warsh confirmation

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 24, 2026

How Kevin Warsh Could Shrink the Fed’s Footprint in Financial Markets

New York Times - Business reports: Update: How Kevin Warsh Could Shrink the Fed’s Footprint in Financial Markets How Kevin Warsh Could Shrink the Fed’s Footprint in Financial Markets

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations Election & Political Contracts

Apr 24, 2026

Congress keeps holding all-nighters, creating dysfunction after dark

Filing: Congress keeps holding all-nighters, creating dysfunction after dark Congress keeps holding all-nighters, creating dysfunction after dark

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 24, 2026

Tariff refunds in sight as importers start signing up

The Hill reports: Update: Tariff refunds in sight as importers start signing up Tariff refunds in sight as importers start signing up

Supreme Court+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Crypto Prediction Markets

Apr 23, 2026

Everyone’s piling into YES on Polymarket tech layoffs but here’s why I’m not so sure at 88%

Reddit r/Polymarket reports: Update: Everyone’s piling into YES on Polymarket tech layoffs but here’s why I’m not so sure at 88% Everyone’s piling into YES on Polymarket tech layoffs but here’s why I’m not so sure at 88%

Chainlink+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 23, 2026

Warsh’s Vision for Fed Chair Is More Insular Than Powell’s

Bloomberg Law reports: Update: Warsh’s Vision for Fed Chair Is More Insular Than Powell’s Warsh’s Vision for Fed Chair Is More Insular Than Powell’s

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 22, 2026

‘Is that real?:’ Warren, CNBC anchor spar over Trump Fed pressure

The Hill reports: Update: ‘Is that real?:’ Warren, CNBC anchor spar over Trump Fed pressure ‘Is that real?:’ Warren, CNBC anchor spar over Trump Fed pressure

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations Election & Political Contracts

Apr 22, 2026

Here's what to expect from Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's Senate hearing Tuesday

CNBC reports: Filing: Here's what to expect from Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's Senate hearing Tuesday Here's what to expect from Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's Senate hearing Tuesday

Omen+4 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 22, 2026

Trump’s Fed Pick Faces Tough Task Shedding ‘Sock Puppet’ Label

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Trump’s Fed Pick Faces Tough Task Shedding ‘Sock Puppet’ Label Trump’s Fed Pick Faces Tough Task Shedding ‘Sock Puppet’ Label

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 22, 2026

Watch live: US trade representative testifies before House on Trump policies

The Hill reports: Update: Watch live: US trade representative testifies before House on Trump policies Watch live: US trade representative testifies before House on Trump policies

Supreme Court+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 22, 2026

Watch live: Lutnick testifies before Senate on Commerce Department budget

The Hill reports: Update: Watch live: Lutnick testifies before Senate on Commerce Department budget Watch live: Lutnick testifies before Senate on Commerce Department budget

Supreme Court+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Election & Political Contracts

Apr 22, 2026

Warsh sidesteps questions over Trump’s influence on Fed rate policy

Financial Times reports: Update: Warsh sidesteps questions over Trump’s influence on Fed rate policy Warsh sidesteps questions over Trump’s influence on Fed rate policy

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Apr 21, 2026

Tillis Signals Openness to Warsh Vote If Congress Adds Fed Probe

Bloomberg Law reports: Update: Tillis Signals Openness to Warsh Vote If Congress Adds Fed Probe Tillis Signals Openness to Warsh Vote If Congress Adds Fed Probe

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 21, 2026

Warsh faces pressure on Fed independence, assets in Senate grilling

The Hill reports: Update: Warsh faces pressure on Fed independence, assets in Senate grilling Warsh faces pressure on Fed independence, assets in Senate grilling

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Apr 21, 2026

Fed Pick Faces Skepticism Over Claim of Independence From Trump

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Fed Pick Faces Skepticism Over Claim of Independence From Trump Fed Pick Faces Skepticism Over Claim of Independence From Trump

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 21, 2026

Worker satisfaction with pay, advancement at new low: Fed survey

The Hill reports: Update: Worker satisfaction with pay, advancement at new low: Fed survey Worker satisfaction with pay, advancement at new low: Fed survey

Federal Reserve+1 sources

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