Macro & Policy Decisions

Federal Reserve decisions, trade policy, tariffs, and geopolitical events that drive prediction market activity.

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Macro & Policy Decisions Sports Event Contracts Institutional & Platform Moves

Mar 4, 2026

Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?

Update: Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 4, 2026

Top Fed Official, Wary of Inflation, Calls for Extended Rate Pause

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Top Fed Official, Wary of Inflation, Calls for Extended Rate Pause Top Fed Official, Wary of Inflation, Calls for Extended Rate Pause

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Sports Event Contracts Election & Political Contracts

Mar 4, 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: March

Update: Nothing Ever Happens: March Nothing Ever Happens: March

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 3, 2026

At a divided Fed, doves likely to rule the roost and push for more rate cuts this year

MarketWatch reports: Update: At a divided Fed, doves likely to rule the roost and push for more rate cuts this year At a divided Fed, doves likely to rule the roost and push for more rate cuts this year

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Institutional & Platform Moves Crypto Prediction Markets

Mar 3, 2026

U.S. Senate housing bill includes CBDC ban

CoinDesk reports: Ruling: U.S. Senate housing bill includes CBDC ban U.S. Senate housing bill includes CBDC ban

Federal Reserve+2 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 1, 2026

Can an A.I. Productivity Boom Clear a Path for More Rate Cuts? Trump’s Fed Pick Thinks So.

Ruling: Can an A.I. Productivity Boom Clear a Path for More Rate Cuts? Trump’s Fed Pick Thinks So. Can an A.I. Productivity Boom Clear a Path for More Rate Cuts? Trump’s Fed Pick Thinks So.

Omen+2 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Mar 1, 2026

Trump tariff refund fight in motion as small businesses take helm

The Hill reports: Ruling: Trump tariff refund fight in motion as small businesses take helm Trump tariff refund fight in motion as small businesses take helm

Supreme Court+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 28, 2026

Trump Signals Opposition to Tariff Refunds, Hinting at Legal War to Come

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Trump Signals Opposition to Tariff Refunds, Hinting at Legal War to Come Trump Signals Opposition to Tariff Refunds, Hinting at Legal War to Come

Supreme Court+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions Election & Political Contracts

Feb 27, 2026

Trump Faces 2,000 Tariff Lawsuits Following Supreme Court Loss - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg reports: Ruling: Trump Faces 2,000 Tariff Lawsuits Following Supreme Court Loss - Bloomberg.com Trump Faces 2,000 Tariff Lawsuits Following Supreme Court Loss - Bloomberg.com

Supreme Court+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 27, 2026

FedEx says it will return to customers any refunds it gets back from Trump's illegal tariffs

Associated Press reports: Filing: FedEx says it will return to customers any refunds it gets back from Trump's illegal tariffs FedEx says it will return to customers any refunds it gets back from Trump's illegal tariffs

Omen+4 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions State Regulator Crackdowns

Feb 27, 2026

Moore demands Trump tariff reimbursements for Maryland consumers, businesses

The Hill reports: Update: Moore demands Trump tariff reimbursements for Maryland consumers, businesses Moore demands Trump tariff reimbursements for Maryland consumers, businesses

Supreme Court+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions State Regulator Crackdowns

Feb 27, 2026

Mexico’s Supreme Court holds its first session outside Mexico City, in Chiapas

Associated Press reports: Ruling: Mexico’s Supreme Court holds its first session outside Mexico City, in Chiapas Mexico’s Supreme Court holds its first session outside Mexico City, in Chiapas

UMA Protocol+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 26, 2026

Gillibrand wants $130B tariff refund for Americans

The Hill reports: Update: Gillibrand wants $130B tariff refund for Americans Gillibrand wants $130B tariff refund for Americans

Supreme Court+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions State Regulator Crackdowns

Feb 26, 2026

Analysis: Supreme Court tariff reversal cements China’s upper hand ahead of a critical meeting with Trump | CNN Business

CNN Business reports: Ruling: Analysis: Supreme Court tariff reversal cements China’s upper hand ahead of a critical meeting with Trump | CNN Business Analysis: Supreme Court tariff reversal cements China’s upper hand ahead of a critical meeting with Trump | CNN Business

Chainlink+2 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 26, 2026

Tariff rate for some nations will rise to 15 percent: Trade representative

The Hill reports: Ruling: Tariff rate for some nations will rise to 15 percent: Trade representative Tariff rate for some nations will rise to 15 percent: Trade representative

Supreme Court+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 25, 2026

Government Bonds’ Shrinking Appeal Has Cost, New York Fed Says

Bloomberg Law reports: Update: Government Bonds’ Shrinking Appeal Has Cost, New York Fed Says Government Bonds’ Shrinking Appeal Has Cost, New York Fed Says

Federal Reserve+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 25, 2026

Steve Madden won’t give profit guidance as planned due to Supreme Court tariff ruling

MarketWatch reports: Ruling: Steve Madden won’t give profit guidance as planned due to Supreme Court tariff ruling Steve Madden won’t give profit guidance as planned due to Supreme Court tariff ruling

Supreme Court+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 25, 2026

Congress must define a new 21st century tariff doctrine

The Hill reports: Update: Congress must define a new 21st century tariff doctrine Congress must define a new 21st century tariff doctrine

Supreme Court+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Feb 25, 2026

Attorneys describe ‘chaotic’ situation after SCOTUS tariffs decision

Filing: Attorneys describe ‘chaotic’ situation after SCOTUS tariffs decision Attorneys describe ‘chaotic’ situation after SCOTUS tariffs decision

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations Institutional & Platform Moves

Feb 25, 2026

Tokenized US Treasury Market Surges by $1B Since Beginning of Year

Cointelegraph reports: Enforcement: Tokenized US Treasury Market Surges by $1B Since Beginning of Year Tokenized US Treasury Market Surges by $1B Since Beginning of Year

Federal Reserve+1 sources

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