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Macro & Policy Decisions

Federal Reserve decisions, trade policy, tariffs, and geopolitical events that drive prediction market activity.

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Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 21, 2026

Trump says he will ‘remember’ any company that doesn’t request tariff refund

The Hill reports: Filing: Trump says he will ‘remember’ any company that doesn’t request tariff refund Trump says he will ‘remember’ any company that doesn’t request tariff refund

Supreme Court+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Apr 21, 2026

Fed chairman nominee Kevin Warsh's vast holdings include crypto

Filing: Fed chairman nominee Kevin Warsh's vast holdings include crypto Fed chairman nominee Kevin Warsh's vast holdings include crypto

Federal Reserve+3 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Federal Litigation - District Courts Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 21, 2026

Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell

CNBC reports: Filing: Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell

Federal Reserve+6 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 21, 2026

Trump says Fed nominee should cut rates right away

The Hill reports: Update: Trump says Fed nominee should cut rates right away Trump says Fed nominee should cut rates right away

Omen+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Apr 21, 2026

A criminal inquiry into the Fed looms large over the Warsh hearing.

New York Times - Business reports: Update: A criminal inquiry into the Fed looms large over the Warsh hearing. A criminal inquiry into the Fed looms large over the Warsh hearing.

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 21, 2026

Watch live: Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to replace Powell at Fed, faces confirmation hearing

The Hill reports: Update: Watch live: Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to replace Powell at Fed, faces confirmation hearing Watch live: Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to replace Powell at Fed, faces confirmation hearing

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 21, 2026

Senate Democrats press Warsh on asset divestiture plan ahead of confirmation hearing

The Hill reports: Update: Senate Democrats press Warsh on asset divestiture plan ahead of confirmation hearing Senate Democrats press Warsh on asset divestiture plan ahead of confirmation hearing

Federal Reserve+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 21, 2026

Trump says he'll 'remember' companies that don't seek tariff refund

Filing: Trump says he'll 'remember' companies that don't seek tariff refund Trump says he'll 'remember' companies that don't seek tariff refund

Omen+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 21, 2026

Trump’s feud with Powell threatens plans to replace Federal Reserve chair

The Hill reports: Update: Trump’s feud with Powell threatens plans to replace Federal Reserve chair Trump’s feud with Powell threatens plans to replace Federal Reserve chair

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations

Apr 21, 2026

Kevin Warsh, Trump’s Pick to Lead Fed, Faces Senate at Tricky Moment

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Kevin Warsh, Trump’s Pick to Lead Fed, Faces Senate at Tricky Moment Kevin Warsh, Trump’s Pick to Lead Fed, Faces Senate at Tricky Moment

Omen+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions CFTC Enforcement & Investigations Election & Political Contracts

Apr 20, 2026

Wells CEO Scharf Calls Fed Independence ‘Critically Important’

Bloomberg Law reports: Update: Wells CEO Scharf Calls Fed Independence ‘Critically Important’ Wells CEO Scharf Calls Fed Independence ‘Critically Important’

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 20, 2026

Fed Pick Warsh Heads for Senate With Confirmation in Limbo (2)

Bloomberg Law reports: Update: Fed Pick Warsh Heads for Senate With Confirmation in Limbo (2) Fed Pick Warsh Heads for Senate With Confirmation in Limbo (2)

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 20, 2026

Trump Administration to Begin Refunding $166 Billion in Tariffs

New York Times - Business reports: Update: Trump Administration to Begin Refunding $166 Billion in Tariffs Trump Administration to Begin Refunding $166 Billion in Tariffs

Supreme Court+2 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 20, 2026

Kevin Warsh’s testimony to Congress is out early. He wants the Fed to ‘stay in its lane.’

MarketWatch reports: Update: Kevin Warsh’s testimony to Congress is out early. He wants the Fed to ‘stay in its lane.’ Kevin Warsh’s testimony to Congress is out early. He wants the Fed to ‘stay in its lane.’

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 20, 2026

Warsh Vows to Protect Fed’s Independence If Confirmed as Chair

Bloomberg Law reports: Update: Warsh Vows to Protect Fed’s Independence If Confirmed as Chair Warsh Vows to Protect Fed’s Independence If Confirmed as Chair

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions Crypto Prediction Markets

Apr 20, 2026

Kevin Warsh would be the first tech bro Fed chair. How Silicon Valley shaped him

CNBC reports: Ruling: Kevin Warsh would be the first tech bro Fed chair. How Silicon Valley shaped him Kevin Warsh would be the first tech bro Fed chair. How Silicon Valley shaped him

Omen+2 sources

Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Macro & Policy Decisions Institutional & Platform Moves

Apr 20, 2026

Tariff refund system for businesses scheduled for launch on Monday

Primary document: Tariff refund system for businesses scheduled for launch on Monday Tariff refund system for businesses scheduled for launch on Monday

Supreme Court+1 sources

CFTC Rulemaking & Guidance Appeals & Supreme Court Watch Federal Litigation - District Courts

Apr 20, 2026

What to know about tariff refund site that's set to go live Monday

Filing: What to know about tariff refund site that's set to go live Monday What to know about tariff refund site that's set to go live Monday

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 19, 2026

What to Expect From Fed Chair Nom. Kevin Warsh’s Hearing (Video)

Bloomberg Law reports: Update: What to Expect From Fed Chair Nom. Kevin Warsh’s Hearing (Video) What to Expect From Fed Chair Nom. Kevin Warsh’s Hearing (Video)

Federal Reserve+1 sources

Macro & Policy Decisions

Apr 18, 2026

Trump expects his Fed chair nominee to cut interest rates. Here’s how Kevin Warsh might try to do it.

MarketWatch reports: Update: Trump expects his Fed chair nominee to cut interest rates. Here’s how Kevin Warsh might try to do it. Trump expects his Fed chair nominee to cut interest rates. Here’s how Kevin Warsh might try to do it.

Federal Reserve+1 sources

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